28 October 2024

Space Governance Challenges, China’s Mistrust of the West, Lunar Exploration to Build New Partnerships  - Space News Roundup

UNOOSA based in Vienna (Image Render: United Nations)

October 24 marked United Nations Day—a moment to reflect on recent developments and achievements by the UN and the United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs. This past year saw key milestones, including outcomes from the inaugural UN Conference on Sustainable Lunar Activities and a renewed focus within the Pact for the Future. These initiatives highlight the need for multi-stakeholder involvement, the strengthening of international cooperation, and, importantly, an acknowledgment of our growing reliance on space.

Space governance has increasingly become a topic of discussion, especially in recent years, as a growing array of actors and stakeholders engage with the space sector and seek to harness the benefits of space resources. UN treaties, particularly the Outer Space Treaty, have served as the cornerstone of space law for over 50 years. However, as we enter the era of “new space”—characterised by a surge in both state and non-state participants—we are witnessing the rise of a “regime complex” in space. This term describes an expanding web of overlapping treaties, policies, and national and international laws and frameworks, through which the challenges of space are being managed and governed.

We regularly examine the evolution of international frameworks and alliances, including the U.S.-led Artemis Accords and the China-led International Lunar Research Station project, both of which aim to establish partnerships and set norms and regulations for space exploration and utilisation. This week marks the fourth anniversary of the Artemis Accords and the addition of their 46th signatory, Cyprus.

The Artemis Accords offer a transparent framework with publicly available, non-binding guidelines aimed at enhancing safety, maintaining peace, and permitting resource extraction in space. However, they notably exclude signatories from Russia and China. Still, former NASA Associate Administrator for Space Policy and Partnerships, Mike Gold, has noted that “...the Accords were designed to be the beginning of a discussion, not an ending.” He commended the Accords for building momentum around establishing space exploration norms, with discussions at the UN that also engage China and Russia.

This week, it was reported that the U.S. and China are in discussions about granting NASA access to lunar samples collected by China’s Chang’e-5 mission in 2020. This follows NASA’s approval last year to apply for a loan of the samples and represents a rare instance of cooperation between the rival space superpowers. NASA is strictly prohibited from using public funds for direct, bilateral collaboration with China without explicit permission from Congress and the FBI.

Whether a "diplomacy through science" model can ease tensions and foster transparent, cooperative governance remains to be seen. Still, it may offer one of several approaches needed to build trust and collaboration for the future.

Chinese western distrust, Firefly and UK support for defence projects, Musk accused of secret discussions with Putin

Efforts to build trust are more essential than ever as tensions between China, Russia, and the U.S. continue to rise. While the Artemis Accords have opened avenues for UN-level dialogue among these major players, China has responded to the Accords with some skepticism. When the Accords were announced in 2020, Chinese military commentator Song Zhongping likened them to an “enclosure movement,” a strategy used in 19th-century Britain to privatise public land.

Russia also accused the Accords of being a “blatant attempt to create international space law that favours the United States”, according to a journal article from 2020.

This week, China has seemingly deepened its mistrust of the West, after the security ministry posted on social media that "in recent years, some Western countries have formed space combat forces, exercised space action capabilities and even regarded (China) as a major competitor in the space field…” No names were given, but they also reported that foreign intelligence agents had attempted to steal Chinese tech secrets and that competition for resources was becoming “increasingly tense” (Reuters, 2024).  

There is also the growing recognition of space as the new frontier of defense, with space technology offering significant advantages for military applications while satellites increasingly become targets in conflicts. This intertwining of space and defense was highlighted last week when the UK signed a letter of intent to enhance collaboration with NATO allies on government and commercial space launch capabilities, with the UK committing to provide both launch capabilities and training.

In addition, Firefly Aerospace and True Anomaly have signed an agreement with the U.S. Space Force for their Victus Haze tactically responsive space launch mission (TacRS). Firefly will provide launch services to deploy True Anomaly’s Jackal Autonomous Orbital Vehicle (AOV) on short notice, showcasing the ability to rapidly respond to threats in Earth orbit. Firefly previously achieved success with their Victus Nox TacRS mission last year, when they successfully deployed a satellite into orbit following just 24 hours' notice.

While these demonstrations highlight the remarkable achievements that commercial entities are making in space, they also underscore the growing importance of the space domain in defence.

Western allies may be increasingly alarmed by reports that Elon Musk and Vladimir Putin have apparently been holding secret meetings over the past two years. Speaking at Semafor’s World Economy Summit on October 25, NASA chief Bill Nelson stated, “I think it should be investigated. If the story is true that there have been multiple conversations between Elon Musk and the president of Russia, then I think that would be concerning.”

Musk has demonstrated significant influence in the Ukraine conflict, particularly regarding the use of Starlink. In 2022, he even posted his own peace proposal for Ukraine on his social media platform, X.com. The plan suggested that Russia could retain control of the annexed region of Crimea and that Ukraine should adopt a neutral status. While the specifics of the discussions between Musk and Putin remain unclear, they once again highlight the influence Musk continues to wield in the realms of space and defence.

Lupex rover illustration  (Image: JAXA)

Lunar models for cooperation

The expanding “regime complex” may complicate efforts for all actors in space to find common ground and reach agreements, making it challenging to establish truly cooperative models for future space governance. Additionally, the increasing value of space and its utilisation for defence purposes indicates that governments and agencies are recognising the potential for conflict in this arena as well.

However, space can also still provide a means of building cooperation, as it continues to prove onboard ISS and the ongoing partnership between the US and Russia.

Speaking at the International Astronautical Congress (IAC) in Milan on October 17, the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) outlined plans for their upcoming Chandrayaan-4 mission, a sample-return effort scheduled to launch in 2027. Additionally, they provided updates on the joint Indian-Japanese mission, LUPEX, which is set to launch in 2028. In this mission, India will supply the landing vehicle and payloads, while Japan will contribute the rover, launch services, and other payloads. One of the primary objectives of the mission is to search for water at the lunar south pole.

Both countries have showcased significant potential for lunar exploration, positioning themselves to become the fourth and fifth nations to land on the Moon. Additionally, participants from India and Japan, alongside representatives from Intuitive Machines and Astrobotic, discussed the importance of interoperability and sharing lessons learned to optimise the development of their vehicles. The push for interoperable systems on the Moon can enhance safety and improve rescue operations.

The U.S. Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) is currently conducting its Luna-10 study to accelerate interoperability standards and promote the development of a scalable commercial lunar economy within the next decade. Improved interoperability could minimise the lunar footprint and create monetizable services.

This week, Space Factory (US) and Michigan Technological University (MTU) demonstrated the potential for partnerships between the private sector and academia by showcasing the first “lunar road,” developed and constructed in a simulated space environment. The project envisions utilising lunar regolith for construction, combining it with biopolymers to create what they are calling “lunar asphalt.”

Opinion: More than unites than what divides

On United Nations Day last week, Aarti Holla-Maini, the head of the United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs (UNOOSA), posted on social media that, in relation to space, there is “…more that unites us than divides us.” She highlighted the success of the first UN Conference on Sustainable Lunar Activities earlier this year, where signatories from both the U.S.-led Artemis Accords and the Chinese-led International Lunar Research Station (ILRS) project came together, demonstrating that they share more common ground than they might have initially realised.

However, as we have observed this past week, geopolitical tensions continue to seep into the space arena, raising concerns that it may not remain a realm of peaceful development.

Now is the time to build on these shared goals for safety, sustainability and interoperability, and utilise the power of partnerships to build a successful future. 

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